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	<title>Comments on: Climate Change and Argumentative Fallacies</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/</link>
	<description>Just another geek in the geek kingdom</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 18 Mar 2010 16:30:34 -0400</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Marion Delgado</title>
		<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/comment-page-2/#comment-10552</link>
		<dc:creator>Marion Delgado</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 06:56:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.juliansanchez.com/?p=3003#comment-10552</guid>
		<description>Where are you finding mature and honest libertarians? Who actually want to do anything but exploit and harm other people?

I think it&#039;s a relatively pure scam, equivalent to the divine right of kings c. the Middle Ages. And, if anything, the libertarians of today are worse than those of yesteryear.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Where are you finding mature and honest libertarians? Who actually want to do anything but exploit and harm other people?</p>
<p>I think it&#8217;s a relatively pure scam, equivalent to the divine right of kings c. the Middle Ages. And, if anything, the libertarians of today are worse than those of yesteryear.</p>
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		<title>By: Why Bullshit Often Sounds Better Than The Real Thing &#171; Gravity Loss</title>
		<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/comment-page-2/#comment-10544</link>
		<dc:creator>Why Bullshit Often Sounds Better Than The Real Thing &#171; Gravity Loss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Jan 2010 21:56:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.juliansanchez.com/?p=3003#comment-10544</guid>
		<description>[...] 2010.01.31 by gravityloss    From all places, a libertarian, who is arguing for laymen to trust experts. Come to think of it, there’s a certain class of [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] 2010.01.31 by gravityloss    From all places, a libertarian, who is arguing for laymen to trust experts. Come to think of it, there’s a certain class of [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Veritas</title>
		<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/comment-page-2/#comment-10536</link>
		<dc:creator>Veritas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jan 2010 01:18:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.juliansanchez.com/?p=3003#comment-10536</guid>
		<description>How low can it go? It is amazing to see the depths of those who only have ad hominem to share:


http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/19458

Andrew Weaver, IPCC Computer Modeler and Political Chameleon
 By Dr. Tim Ball  Friday, January 29, 2010

... among the most duplicitous and disingenuous members of the IPCC as Lead author and participant in the chapter on computer models.
Blah blah 
Dr David Keith who lives in Alberta, but is a rabid devotee of the IPCC and the alarmist views on climate change. His views are easily explained. His research requires considerable.
Blah blah perverted 
Blah blah blinded 
Blah blah bullyboy 
Blah blah, climate scientists that could only – even in the most generous of terms – be described as scandalous, and almost certainly criminal.  
Blah blah blah. By Dr. Tim Ball  Friday, January 29, 2010</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How low can it go? It is amazing to see the depths of those who only have ad hominem to share:</p>
<p><a href="http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/19458" rel="nofollow">http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/19458</a></p>
<p>Andrew Weaver, IPCC Computer Modeler and Political Chameleon<br />
 By Dr. Tim Ball  Friday, January 29, 2010</p>
<p>&#8230; among the most duplicitous and disingenuous members of the IPCC as Lead author and participant in the chapter on computer models.<br />
Blah blah<br />
Dr David Keith who lives in Alberta, but is a rabid devotee of the IPCC and the alarmist views on climate change. His views are easily explained. His research requires considerable.<br />
Blah blah perverted<br />
Blah blah blinded<br />
Blah blah bullyboy<br />
Blah blah, climate scientists that could only – even in the most generous of terms – be described as scandalous, and almost certainly criminal.<br />
Blah blah blah. By Dr. Tim Ball  Friday, January 29, 2010</p>
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		<title>By: Paul M. Jones &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Logical Fallacy vs Bayesian Reasoning</title>
		<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/comment-page-2/#comment-10302</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul M. Jones &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Logical Fallacy vs Bayesian Reasoning</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Dec 2009 00:49:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.juliansanchez.com/?p=3003#comment-10302</guid>
		<description>[...] via Climate Change and Argumentative Fallacies. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] via Climate Change and Argumentative Fallacies. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Media balance &#171; Sköne Oke</title>
		<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/comment-page-2/#comment-10169</link>
		<dc:creator>Media balance &#171; Sköne Oke</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:00:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.juliansanchez.com/?p=3003#comment-10169</guid>
		<description>[...] Julian Sanchez makes some valid contributions:  We’re accustomed to calling the “argument from authority” a fallacy, but in fact, that’s [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Julian Sanchez makes some valid contributions:  We’re accustomed to calling the “argument from authority” a fallacy, but in fact, that’s [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Fred Trotter &#187; Who owns the data</title>
		<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/comment-page-2/#comment-9708</link>
		<dc:creator>Fred Trotter &#187; Who owns the data</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:46:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.juliansanchez.com/?p=3003#comment-9708</guid>
		<description>[...] But asking the question at all is a hash argument. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] But asking the question at all is a hash argument. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Health Care and the &#8220;One Way Hash&#8221; &#124; Extreme Conservatives</title>
		<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/comment-page-2/#comment-9256</link>
		<dc:creator>Health Care and the &#8220;One Way Hash&#8221; &#124; Extreme Conservatives</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2009 22:00:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.juliansanchez.com/?p=3003#comment-9256</guid>
		<description>[...] Sanchez, now a research fellow at the Cato Institute, has dubbed arguments of this sort &quot;one way hash arguments.&quot; The term is a nod to one way hash [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Sanchez, now a research fellow at the Cato Institute, has dubbed arguments of this sort &quot;one way hash arguments.&quot; The term is a nod to one way hash [...]</p>
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		<title>By: composer777</title>
		<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/comment-page-2/#comment-9226</link>
		<dc:creator>composer777</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2009 17:40:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.juliansanchez.com/?p=3003#comment-9226</guid>
		<description>Which makes me wonder, is the term one-way hash argument a one-way hash argument?  

A one way hash is a metaphor for what the author describes in only the most autistic sense, in the sense that one could say that it&#039;s easier for one side to make up something than it is for another side to come up with a truthful rebuttal.  But, other than that, I don&#039;t see how a one-way hash explains or add insight this phenomena.  Fact is, it doesn&#039;t, it just makes it sound good, kind of like a one-way hash argument makes false statements sound good by dressing them up in technical jargon.  I think one could come up with a better metaphor for what is going on here than one-way hash.  Then again, maybe &quot;one-way hash&quot; should stick, after all, it&#039;s a bit ironic that the metaphor that is claimed to  explain it does not.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Which makes me wonder, is the term one-way hash argument a one-way hash argument?  </p>
<p>A one way hash is a metaphor for what the author describes in only the most autistic sense, in the sense that one could say that it&#8217;s easier for one side to make up something than it is for another side to come up with a truthful rebuttal.  But, other than that, I don&#8217;t see how a one-way hash explains or add insight this phenomena.  Fact is, it doesn&#8217;t, it just makes it sound good, kind of like a one-way hash argument makes false statements sound good by dressing them up in technical jargon.  I think one could come up with a better metaphor for what is going on here than one-way hash.  Then again, maybe &#8220;one-way hash&#8221; should stick, after all, it&#8217;s a bit ironic that the metaphor that is claimed to  explain it does not.</p>
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		<title>By: pudge</title>
		<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/comment-page-2/#comment-8270</link>
		<dc:creator>pudge</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:30:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.juliansanchez.com/?p=3003#comment-8270</guid>
		<description>Sigh.

Here&#039;s the thing.

Even a layman can see that the science for anthropogenic global warming is extremely flawed, because at a *basic* level, it doesn&#039;t follow the scientific method.  Falsifiability, control experiments, and so on are thrown out the window, just because they are &quot;hard.&quot;  And when I say &quot;hard,&quot; I mean, of course, &quot;impossible:&quot; we cannot create an alternate Earth and see what would happen without man-made CO2 (yet), for example.  But that&#039;s no excuse.  Scientists should not dismiss the flaws in their methods just because they are &quot;hard.&quot;

The obvious fact is -- even to a layman -- that AGW is simply scientists&#039; best guess.  It&#039;s not a fact, and the debate isn&#039;t over.

It&#039;s one thing to say that when a doctor tells me that I have high blood pressure, and that a certain pill will reduce my blood pressure, I should believe him: without understanding how the pill works, I understand that there&#039;s actual science that demonstrates to a very high degree of certainty that it has this effect on blood pressure.

Unfortunately, without having a deep understanding of the actual reactions, I also understand that there&#039;s been demonstrated no significant causative effect from man-made CO2 in the atomosphere on the temperature of the Earth.  To put AGW science on the same level as other &quot;scientific expert&quot; claims we deal with on a daily basis is unreasonable.

It&#039;s like DNA evidence in courts: for years it was essentially inadmissable, not because we doubted the scientists, but because we needed to really understand not the exact science, but the methods, the theories, and so on.  We were not willing to just hand over such an important thing to scientists and call it a day.  It was a process.

We do not need to wait for scientists to disagree on a topic (although, of course, many do disagree on this one).  We can simply demand that they show us how they&#039;ve dealt with the flaws in their methodology; how they come to the conclusion that it could not be some other unidentified phenomena instead of CO2; etc., and if they can&#039;t, we can choose to accept it as merely their opinion, rather than as an operative fact.

Which is what it is.

The choice is not between believing AGW happens and believing it does not.  We can choose the rational, third option: recognizing that we, in fact, don&#039;t know.  That the debate is not over.

(And this, of course, also leads us to the problem of Pascal&#039;s Wager ... the problem being that it&#039;s a nonsensical form of argument, that many pro-AGW people try to use to convince us to engage in all manner of reforms &quot;just in case&quot; it&#039;s true.  But that&#039;s another topic.)

The problem is, of course, when we recognize we don&#039;t know, the zealots recognize they are less likely to get passed the policy changes they want, so they engage in the worst kind of destructive and dishonest argumentation: pretending their largely unsubstantiated opinion is fact, so they can get their way.

They are well-meaning, mostly.  But they&#039;re still wrong.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sigh.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s the thing.</p>
<p>Even a layman can see that the science for anthropogenic global warming is extremely flawed, because at a *basic* level, it doesn&#8217;t follow the scientific method.  Falsifiability, control experiments, and so on are thrown out the window, just because they are &#8220;hard.&#8221;  And when I say &#8220;hard,&#8221; I mean, of course, &#8220;impossible:&#8221; we cannot create an alternate Earth and see what would happen without man-made CO2 (yet), for example.  But that&#8217;s no excuse.  Scientists should not dismiss the flaws in their methods just because they are &#8220;hard.&#8221;</p>
<p>The obvious fact is &#8212; even to a layman &#8212; that AGW is simply scientists&#8217; best guess.  It&#8217;s not a fact, and the debate isn&#8217;t over.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s one thing to say that when a doctor tells me that I have high blood pressure, and that a certain pill will reduce my blood pressure, I should believe him: without understanding how the pill works, I understand that there&#8217;s actual science that demonstrates to a very high degree of certainty that it has this effect on blood pressure.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, without having a deep understanding of the actual reactions, I also understand that there&#8217;s been demonstrated no significant causative effect from man-made CO2 in the atomosphere on the temperature of the Earth.  To put AGW science on the same level as other &#8220;scientific expert&#8221; claims we deal with on a daily basis is unreasonable.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s like DNA evidence in courts: for years it was essentially inadmissable, not because we doubted the scientists, but because we needed to really understand not the exact science, but the methods, the theories, and so on.  We were not willing to just hand over such an important thing to scientists and call it a day.  It was a process.</p>
<p>We do not need to wait for scientists to disagree on a topic (although, of course, many do disagree on this one).  We can simply demand that they show us how they&#8217;ve dealt with the flaws in their methodology; how they come to the conclusion that it could not be some other unidentified phenomena instead of CO2; etc., and if they can&#8217;t, we can choose to accept it as merely their opinion, rather than as an operative fact.</p>
<p>Which is what it is.</p>
<p>The choice is not between believing AGW happens and believing it does not.  We can choose the rational, third option: recognizing that we, in fact, don&#8217;t know.  That the debate is not over.</p>
<p>(And this, of course, also leads us to the problem of Pascal&#8217;s Wager &#8230; the problem being that it&#8217;s a nonsensical form of argument, that many pro-AGW people try to use to convince us to engage in all manner of reforms &#8220;just in case&#8221; it&#8217;s true.  But that&#8217;s another topic.)</p>
<p>The problem is, of course, when we recognize we don&#8217;t know, the zealots recognize they are less likely to get passed the policy changes they want, so they engage in the worst kind of destructive and dishonest argumentation: pretending their largely unsubstantiated opinion is fact, so they can get their way.</p>
<p>They are well-meaning, mostly.  But they&#8217;re still wrong.</p>
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		<title>By: BlogBites. Like sound bites. But without the sound. &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Give me a topic I know fairly intimately, and I can often make a convincing case for absolute horseshit.</title>
		<link>http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/comment-page-2/#comment-8170</link>
		<dc:creator>BlogBites. Like sound bites. But without the sound. &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Give me a topic I know fairly intimately, and I can often make a convincing case for absolute horseshit.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:27:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.juliansanchez.com/?p=3003#comment-8170</guid>
		<description>[...] me a topic I know fairly intimately, and I can often make a convincing case for absolute horseshit. Climate Change and Argumentative Fallacies &#160;    &#171; So unless you&#8217;re into brief but outrageous Twitter news from Mashable that [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] me a topic I know fairly intimately, and I can often make a convincing case for absolute horseshit. Climate Change and Argumentative Fallacies &nbsp;    &laquo; So unless you&#8217;re into brief but outrageous Twitter news from Mashable that [...]</p>
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