In other words, in searching for the simplest explanation borne out by the facts, we can sometimes come upon one which is simpler than the true explanation–even though it leads to the right conclusion.

Let me make this more concrete by illustrating using my own stupidity, which is conveniently at hand.

For me, the term “in the tank” had conveyed a totally different image (although I knew the meaning.) My preferred image was one of those “dunk tanks” you sometimes see in carnivals but more often in sitcoms. [For the uninitiated: a volunteer--often an authority figure--sits on a sort of trap door above a tank of water. Participants, who typically pay a fee for the privilege, are given three balls and the chance to hit a target which, if successfully struck, will cause the seated volunteer to fall in the water. Hilarity ensues.]

So my thought had been that if you had just been dropped into a dunk tank, your eyes, ears, and mouth are completely closed, lest you drown. By analogy, if you are “in the tank” for a certain candidate, you are blind/deaf/closed to their flaws, errors, and/or the criticisms coming from their opponents.

I like the real explanation better.